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2022年首期中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)發(fā)布 1月份AMI比上年同期提升6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)
2022-02-10
09:57:08
來源:中國農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量:25567
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導(dǎo)讀:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2022年1月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為49.1%,環(huán)比下降3.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 1月份AMI指數(shù)為49.1%,比上月下降3.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),比上年同期提升6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2022年1月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為49.1%,環(huán)比下降3.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看,6個(gè)一級指數(shù)中除庫存指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,其中效益指數(shù)降幅最高,為8.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從同比看,6個(gè)一級指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)增幅最高,為8.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。1月份,6個(gè)一級指數(shù)中除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)和庫存指數(shù)依然停留在景氣區(qū)間,其余均位于不景氣區(qū)間。
特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:正如我們上月預(yù)測,1月份,環(huán)比下降、同比增長。AMI擊穿榮枯線,跌入不景氣區(qū)間,但值得注意的是景氣度仍然維持在較高點(diǎn)上?;仡?月份AMI變化,環(huán)比下降主要受以下因素的影響較大。其一,季節(jié)因素,1月份,正值市場淡季,市場需求疲軟;其二,春節(jié)因素,1月份臨近春節(jié),消費(fèi)者忙于節(jié)前的準(zhǔn)備;其三,去年12月份,AMI受各種偶然性因素的影響,尤其是補(bǔ)貼因素,市場表現(xiàn)搶眼,出乎預(yù)料的進(jìn)入景氣狀態(tài),形成AMI“高地”。從同比表現(xiàn)看,同比增長主要因?yàn)槿ツ晖诰皻舛容^低,客觀上預(yù)設(shè)了景氣度“洼地”所致。
2月份走勢判斷。預(yù)計(jì)已經(jīng)開始的2月份,AMI將在榮枯線附近徘徊,挺近景氣區(qū)間的概率較大。環(huán)比、同比或出現(xiàn)不同程度的上升,但增幅不會(huì)太大。
從影響2月份AMI主要因素分析,第一,今年春節(jié)提前,意味著春節(jié)因素對本月的影響因素下降,市場提前啟動(dòng)的可能性較大;第二,人氣指數(shù)雖然出現(xiàn)一定的滑坡,但經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)的同比和環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)較大幅度增長,說明經(jīng)銷商對2月份市場信心較足;第三,今年補(bǔ)貼政策啟動(dòng)較早,不少重點(diǎn)省份提前進(jìn)入農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼模式,對市場起到一定的拉動(dòng)作用;第四,企業(yè)促銷、經(jīng)銷商加大庫存,對市場穩(wěn)定增長起到較大作用;第五,從AMI走勢規(guī)律分析。2014~2021年8年間,2月份景氣度高于1月份,無一例外,尤其是2017年以來的同比增幅均達(dá)到兩位數(shù)?;诖?,我們判斷今年2月份如不出現(xiàn)意外,同比增長的概率較大。
環(huán)比增幅不會(huì)太高。這種判斷主要基于以下幾點(diǎn):一是從1月份景氣度分析,1月份雖然跌出景氣區(qū)間,但景氣度并不低,創(chuàng)下了2014年以來9年間1月份的最高景氣度,將AMI景氣度推到高點(diǎn)上,壓縮了2月份AMI景氣度上升的空間。二是2月份正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場的傳統(tǒng)淡季,加之春節(jié)因素影響,購買意愿下降,對景氣度的上升產(chǎn)生較大影響;三是從六個(gè)一級指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)分析,除庫存指數(shù)、經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)環(huán)比增長外,其它均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降,尤其是效益指數(shù)、人氣指數(shù)景氣度相對較低,意味著市場上升力不強(qiáng)。從庫存指數(shù)的增幅看明顯收窄,說明上升動(dòng)力減弱。
二、三級指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)值得注意。作為上半年主力市場的
種植機(jī)市場景氣度較低,其對應(yīng)的三級指數(shù)中的免耕
播種機(jī)、
插秧機(jī)指數(shù)同比、環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)較大幅度滑坡,拉響上半年市場的警報(bào),今年市場變數(shù)陡增。拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)同樣位于不景氣區(qū)間,大型拖拉機(jī)雖然取得了環(huán)比增長,同比大幅度攀升,且挺近景氣區(qū)間的良好表現(xiàn),但因其市場占比較小,對整體市場影響不大。占比較大的中拖市場表現(xiàn)不盡如意,不僅環(huán)比下降,其景氣度也不高。1月的收獲機(jī)指數(shù)雖然跌破榮枯線,進(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間,但依然保持較高的景氣度,主要得益于小麥?zhǔn)斋@機(jī)市場強(qiáng)勢拉動(dòng),全年市場尚待觀察。
附件:2014-2021年1月與2月AMI景氣度對照一覽表 單位:%
預(yù)測很艱難,但卻很重要。雖然不能照亮所有前程,但它能指明大家的方向。從過去兩個(gè)月景氣指數(shù)的整體表現(xiàn)看,市場雖然處于淡季,但景氣度并不算低。由此我們判斷2022年中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場或?qū)⒆叱龅静坏?,旺季不旺的軌跡。從宏觀因素看,一季度雖然PMI(采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù))有所回升,但還是相對疲軟。并且原材料漲價(jià)給農(nóng)機(jī)企業(yè)帶來的壓力不容小覷,這點(diǎn)從效益指數(shù)的持續(xù)低迷即可佐證。2022年中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場穩(wěn)定的核心力量有三——惠農(nóng)政策,尤其是補(bǔ)貼政策。傳統(tǒng)市場的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整產(chǎn)生的更新需求以及新興市場的拉動(dòng)。但基于去年農(nóng)機(jī)用戶因疫情、水患等因素的影響,作業(yè)收益出現(xiàn)較大幅度滑坡,影響潛在市場需求。加之多數(shù)傳統(tǒng)市場飽和而引發(fā)的剛需下降,一些市場的持續(xù)增長滋生的需求收縮、預(yù)期轉(zhuǎn)弱等多重壓力的對沖,決定了今年的市場面臨的環(huán)境依然嚴(yán)峻、復(fù)雜、多變。
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