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豬肉價格連續(xù)回落，未來的豬肉供應(yīng)和價格走勢如何？

2021-04-20 16:59:56 來源：農(nóng)機網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量：24237 評論

導(dǎo)讀： 4月20日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部就一季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟運行情況舉行了新聞發(fā)布會，發(fā)展規(guī)劃司司長曾衍德、市場與信息化司副司長宋丹陽、種植業(yè)管理司副司長劉莉華、畜牧獸醫(yī)局副局長陳光華、辦公廳副主任劉均勇等出席發(fā)布會并答記者問。

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】 4月20日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部就一季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟運行情況舉行了新聞發(fā)布會，發(fā)展規(guī)劃司司長曾衍德、市場與信息化司副司長宋丹陽、種植業(yè)管理司副司長劉莉華、畜牧獸醫(yī)局副局長陳光華、辦公廳副主任劉均勇等出席發(fā)布會并答記者問。
 
　　對于大家普遍關(guān)注的豬肉價格問題，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部畜牧獸醫(yī)局副局長陳光華表示，今年1月份以來，豬肉價格已經(jīng)連續(xù)回落近3個月，目前豬肉價格已經(jīng)回落到本輪生豬產(chǎn)能恢復(fù)以來的最低點。根據(jù)監(jiān)測，4月第三周(12日-18日)，全國集貿(mào)市場豬肉價格每公斤是38.96元，已經(jīng)連續(xù)12周回落，同比下降27.6%，比1月份第三周的最高價格降低了15.26元，比去年的最高價(2020年2月份第3周)降低20.68元，最近幾天豬肉又有震蕩反彈。4月10日，全國活豬價格達到每公斤21.14元新低之后，4月20日，就是今天已經(jīng)上漲到23.35元。
 

 

　　近期豬價大幅回落的主要原因是生豬出欄明顯增加，還有春節(jié)之后豬肉消費下降，這一增一降兩個因素碰頭。另外，也有養(yǎng)殖戶恐慌性出欄形成了“踩踏效應(yīng)”。按照常年豬價的走勢，端午節(jié)前后，隨著豬肉消費增加，豬價有可能會出現(xiàn)一波上漲。但是從前期新生仔豬量來推算，預(yù)計2季度，全國規(guī)模豬場肥豬出欄量同比增幅將達到50%，市場供應(yīng)總體寬裕，價格不太可能超過前期的高點。綜合來看，豬肉供應(yīng)最緊張的時期已經(jīng)過去了，后期供應(yīng)會越來越寬松。按照目前生產(chǎn)恢復(fù)勢頭，今年6、7月份，生豬存欄有望恢復(fù)到正常年份的水平。之后再過4個月左右的時間，每個月的出欄量也會逐步恢復(fù)到常年的水平。
 
　　陳光華表示，下一步將繼續(xù)堅持生豬生產(chǎn)恢復(fù)和非洲豬瘟疫情防控兩手抓、兩促進，對標對表生產(chǎn)全面恢復(fù)目標任務(wù)，逐級抓責(zé)任落實，協(xié)同抓政策落地，持續(xù)抓增養(yǎng)補欄，確保恢復(fù)勢頭不中斷、生豬存欄繼續(xù)增加。緊繃疫情防控這根弦，抓緊抓實常態(tài)化防控各項工作，全鏈條、全環(huán)節(jié)強化排查、監(jiān)測、檢疫、監(jiān)管，在全國試行非洲豬瘟等重大動物疫病分區(qū)防控，繼續(xù)開展無疫區(qū)和無疫小區(qū)建設(shè)，堅決防止疫情反彈。同時，著眼長遠，探索建立生豬產(chǎn)能儲備制度，強化監(jiān)督預(yù)警，完善調(diào)控政策，穩(wěn)定基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)能，早研判早介入應(yīng)對，努力防止生豬生產(chǎn)和價格大起大落。
 
　　本文由農(nóng)機網(wǎng)(qktnz.cn)整理發(fā)布，資料來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部，如有侵權(quán)或異議請聯(lián)系我們。

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