2025年全國油菜病蟲害發(fā)生趨勢預(yù)報(bào)

2025-01-10 09:12:39 來源：全國農(nóng)技推廣中心 閱讀量：11899 評論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 熱點(diǎn)關(guān)注】 全國農(nóng)技中心組織植保機(jī)構(gòu)和科研教學(xué)單位有關(guān)專家，根據(jù)冬前病蟲發(fā)生基數(shù)、油菜種植情況和冬春季氣候條件等因素綜合分析，預(yù)計(jì)2025年油菜病蟲害總體中等發(fā)生，發(fā)生面積1.26億畝次，重于上年。其中，菌核病在長江中游和江南中部油菜種植區(qū)偏重發(fā)生；霜霉病、蚜蟲中等發(fā)生。
 
　　趨勢預(yù)報(bào)
 
　　油菜菌核病發(fā)生面積5000萬畝，在西南、江南和長江中游油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)偏重發(fā)生，長江下游、豫南、陜南油菜產(chǎn)區(qū)中等發(fā)生。
 
　　油菜霜霉病發(fā)生面積2600萬畝，在西南、江南、長江中下游大部油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)中等發(fā)生。
 
　　油菜蚜蟲發(fā)生面積3400萬畝，在四川偏重發(fā)生，在西南大部、江南、長江中游、豫南油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)中等發(fā)生。
 
　　此外，油菜根腫病在四川、貴州、湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、陜西南部等長江流域油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)發(fā)生范圍擴(kuò)大、危害程度加重，油菜黃條跳甲在青海中等發(fā)生，潛葉蠅、莖象甲、黑縫葉甲、露尾甲、角野螟在部分油菜產(chǎn)區(qū)會造成一定程度危害。
 
　　預(yù)測依據(jù)
 
　　（一）常發(fā)性病蟲源基數(shù)充足，滿足中等以上發(fā)生條件
 
　　近五年，全國油菜菌核病、霜霉病年均發(fā)生面積分別在4200、2000萬畝左右，田間菌源豐富。其中，西南、長江中下游和江南等主要油菜種植區(qū)菌核病連年大面積發(fā)生，菌源分布廣泛，常年滿足中等以上發(fā)生的菌源基數(shù)。
 
　　長江流域油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)冬前蚜蟲基數(shù)普遍偏低。截至2024年12月10日，平均百株蚜量，西南地區(qū)為30-50頭，較去年偏低4-6成；湖南160頭，較去年低3成；安徽、河南、江西分別為48、71、103頭，與去年持平；江蘇、陜西分別為42、41頭，較去年增加了2-4成。
 
　　（二）油菜品種抗性不高、苗株抗逆性弱，寄主條件有利于病蟲發(fā)生
 
　　2024年全國冬油菜播種面積接近1.1億畝，各地大面積種植油菜品種以雙低高產(chǎn)甘藍(lán)型為主，對菌核病、霜霉病、蚜蟲和病毒病等主要病蟲害的抗性較差；加之直播技術(shù)易造成田間植株密度過大，導(dǎo)致抗逆性弱。另外，由于冬春氣溫起伏劇烈、造成凍害，易導(dǎo)致油菜菌核病直接侵莖危害。
 
　　（三）冬春季天氣整體有利于油菜病蟲害的發(fā)生
 
　　根據(jù)國家氣候中心預(yù)測，2024—2025年冬季和春季，全國冬油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)大部氣溫較常年同期持續(xù)偏高，總體有利于病蟲害越冬和春季早發(fā)。其中，西南、陜南地區(qū)冬春降雨較常年同期持續(xù)偏多，可能導(dǎo)致菌核病子囊盤萌發(fā)提前、侵染期延長，加重病害發(fā)生程度；江南東部、長江中下游春季降水偏少，有利于蚜蟲和病毒病的發(fā)生危害，需引起警惕。

上一篇： 全國農(nóng)技中心組織開展小麥越冬期苗情考察會商

下一篇：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部召開常務(wù)會議 研究部署糧油作物大面積單產(chǎn)提升工作

我要評論
文明上網(wǎng)，理性發(fā)言。（您還可以輸入200個字符)

所有評論僅代表網(wǎng)友意見，與本站立場無關(guān)。

產(chǎn)品推薦 更多

[{"ID":"3116335","Picture":"mt0001/bc84567bfd36087e562d61b0cc07db8cbb0a8a01fae4300aa6c987d56d25aadb7c93c7036d24a0fa.png","PictureDomain":"img66","Name":"中試型凍干機(jī)多少錢","Type":"小型中試","Descrip":"Lyo D30中試型凍干機(jī) 中試凍干機(jī),中試型凍干機(jī)是指規(guī)模介于實(shí)驗(yàn)型和生產(chǎn)型凍干機(jī)之間的設(shè)備。它主要用于中試階段的試驗(yàn)生產(chǎn)，可以滿足小批量、多品種、多工藝的需求。與實(shí)驗(yàn)型凍干機(jī)相比，中試型凍干機(jī)的容積更大，處理能力更強(qiáng)，可有效控制工藝參數(shù)，提高產(chǎn)品的一致性和穩(wěn)定性。與生產(chǎn)型凍干機(jī)相比，中試型凍干機(jī)的投資成本較低，靈活性更高，可以更快速地響應(yīng)市場變化。","CompanyName":"南京金實(shí)儀器設(shè)備有限公司","CompanyID":"139932","MarketPrice":"0","PsOrder":"0","PgID":"110","MaxOrder":"0","CityID":"86","City":"南京市","Address":"南京市","PropertysValue":"","HitNumber":"201","FrontShow":"0","IsCharges":"1","Year":"1","StarNum":"1","UpdateAndClientSort":"51670712","StandUrl":"/st139932","UpdateTime":"2025/3/10 15:52:05","TodayIsUpdate":"1","AttType":"0","AttState":"3","AttAddType":"3","IsSeoCreate":"0","IsOnlinePay":"0","MinPrice":"0.00","MaxPrice":"0.00","ClassID":"21002","productonlinetime":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","OnLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","DownLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","BrandPicDomin":"","BrandPicName":"","BrandProperty":"","PBrandID":"0","IsHadVideo":"0","VideoTime":"0","ShowPrice":"0.00","IndustrySort":"1020000","HasPicSort":"103116335","UserID":"152922","PriceType":"0","PictureID":"1924054","CompanyTypeID":"5","Tag":"","LinkMan":"李乙琳","TelPhone":"86-025-86562535","ClassName":"其它","ComProduct":"實(shí)驗(yàn)室凍干機(jī)","BrandNameCH":"","IsShow":"1","MarketPrice2":"0","RetailPrice":"0","ComHitnumber":"11996","MarketUpdateTime":"","CreateTime":"2024/8/15 4:41:18","Flag":"1","PackageName":"營銷寶會員","ClientSort":"0","CsName":"","Reprint":"2","FeedBackMsg":"","EnUrl":"","MobilePhone":"15380401163"},{"ID":"3084291","Picture":"mt0001/d4728b83567c7315cbe54c99aef420bea1d46f1d9c6e377bc0779e03c3927a39e4521ee9037fabfc.png","PictureDomain":"img80","Name":"銷售運(yùn)動粘度測定儀批發(fā)","Type":"HSY-265D-1","Descrip":"HSY-265D-1石油產(chǎn)品運(yùn)動粘度測定器,符合中華人民共和國行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)SY/T 5651《石油產(chǎn)品運(yùn)動粘度試驗(yàn)器技術(shù)條件》所規(guī)定的要求。本儀器適用于按中華人民共和國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)GB/T 265《石油產(chǎn)品運(yùn)動粘度測定法和動力粘度計(jì)算法》的技術(shù)規(guī)定，測定液體石油產(chǎn)品（指牛頓液體）在某一恒定溫度條件下的運(yùn)動粘度；適用于中華人民共和國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)GB/T1632.1《塑料 使用毛細(xì)管粘度計(jì)測定聚合物稀溶液粘度","CompanyName":"上海頎高儀器有限公司","CompanyID":"139389","MarketPrice":"0","PsOrder":"0","PgID":"110","MaxOrder":"0","CityID":"3","City":"上海市","Address":"上海市","PropertysValue":"","HitNumber":"63","FrontShow":"0","IsCharges":"1","Year":"1","StarNum":"1","UpdateAndClientSort":"51670712","StandUrl":"/st139389","UpdateTime":"2025/3/10 15:52:57","TodayIsUpdate":"1","AttType":"0","AttState":"3","AttAddType":"3","IsSeoCreate":"0","IsOnlinePay":"0","MinPrice":"0.00","MaxPrice":"0.00","ClassID":"21002","productonlinetime":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","OnLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","DownLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","BrandPicDomin":"","BrandPicName":"","BrandProperty":"","PBrandID":"0","IsHadVideo":"0","VideoTime":"0","ShowPrice":"0.00","IndustrySort":"1020000","HasPicSort":"103084291","UserID":"152379","PriceType":"0","PictureID":"1905700","CompanyTypeID":"5","Tag":"","LinkMan":"馬秀男","TelPhone":"021-59950071/59552781","ClassName":"其它","ComProduct":"運(yùn)動粘度儀，閃點(diǎn)測定儀，軟化點(diǎn)測定儀，針入度測定儀、粘度計(jì)、蒸餾試驗(yàn)器、全自動量熱儀、水分測定儀","BrandNameCH":"","IsShow":"1","MarketPrice2":"0","RetailPrice":"0","ComHitnumber":"13545","MarketUpdateTime":"","CreateTime":"2024/7/13 0:01:49","Flag":"1","PackageName":"營銷寶會員","ClientSort":"0","CsName":"","Reprint":"2","FeedBackMsg":"","EnUrl":"","MobilePhone":"18901721167"},{"ID":"2773168","Picture":"dabac5fac07fb39af18aa2fea72864a0dea17730a59de5a9dfac52f054ce1faec5ead2a58bab9d48.jpg","PictureDomain":"img77","Name":"SAA認(rèn)證電纜多少錢","Type":"","Descrip":"5000.2標(biāo)準(zhǔn)TPS兩芯絕緣扁平SAA認(rèn)證電纜適用于家庭、商業(yè)和工業(yè)直埋或地下輸送管道中，不致于使導(dǎo)體及PVC受到損害。尤其適用于出口至澳洲 活動房，集裝箱，冷藏柜及房車等內(nèi)部安裝。","CompanyName":"常州安耐特電纜有限公司","CompanyID":"129640","MarketPrice":"0","PsOrder":"0","PgID":"110","MaxOrder":"0","CityID":"89","City":"常州市","Address":"常州市","PropertysValue":"","HitNumber":"132","FrontShow":"0","IsCharges":"1","Year":"1","StarNum":"1","UpdateAndClientSort":"51670712","StandUrl":"/st129640","UpdateTime":"2025/3/10 15:52:06","TodayIsUpdate":"1","AttType":"0","AttState":"3","AttAddType":"3","IsSeoCreate":"0","IsOnlinePay":"0","MinPrice":"0.00","MaxPrice":"0.00","ClassID":"21002","productonlinetime":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","OnLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","DownLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","BrandPicDomin":"","BrandPicName":"","BrandProperty":"","PBrandID":"0","IsHadVideo":"0","VideoTime":"0","ShowPrice":"0.00","IndustrySort":"1020000","HasPicSort":"102773168","UserID":"142629","PriceType":"0","PictureID":"1708800","CompanyTypeID":"5","Tag":"","LinkMan":"張","TelPhone":"86-0519-81099181","ClassName":"其它","ComProduct":"電線電纜","BrandNameCH":"","IsShow":"1","MarketPrice2":"0","RetailPrice":"0","ComHitnumber":"11718","MarketUpdateTime":"","CreateTime":"2023/7/6 2:18:41","Flag":"1","PackageName":"營銷寶會員","ClientSort":"0","CsName":"","Reprint":"2","FeedBackMsg":"","EnUrl":"","MobilePhone":"15961427590"},{"ID":"3294229","Picture":"mt0005/1697e381d5facf78d0cbf43ef9e74a4864e40aa8ff1157718202f205b51c919788d9b3411a3ee899.jpg","PictureDomain":"img65","Name":"數(shù)控臥式車床生產(chǎn)","Type":"CK630/3000","Descrip":"3米數(shù)控臥式車床采用變頻無級調(diào)速（床頭箱采用無手柄或1檔手柄變速）、功率大、轉(zhuǎn)速高，結(jié)構(gòu)布置合理，加工精度可達(dá)6級，圓度誤差不大于0.01mm， 表面粗糙度不大于Ra1.6um,適用于中、小批量機(jī)加工車間進(jìn)行精加工。","CompanyName":"馬鞍山南實(shí)科技有限公司","CompanyID":"129506","MarketPrice":"0","PsOrder":"0","PgID":"110","MaxOrder":"0","CityID":"114","City":"馬鞍山市","Address":"馬鞍山市","PropertysValue":"","HitNumber":"3","FrontShow":"0","IsCharges":"1","Year":"1","StarNum":"1","UpdateAndClientSort":"51670712","StandUrl":"/st129506","UpdateTime":"2025/3/10 15:52:58","TodayIsUpdate":"1","AttType":"0","AttState":"3","AttAddType":"3","IsSeoCreate":"0","IsOnlinePay":"0","MinPrice":"0.00","MaxPrice":"0.00","ClassID":"21002","productonlinetime":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","OnLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","DownLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","BrandPicDomin":"","BrandPicName":"","BrandProperty":"","PBrandID":"0","IsHadVideo":"0","VideoTime":"0","ShowPrice":"0.00","IndustrySort":"1020000","HasPicSort":"103294229","UserID":"142495","PriceType":"0","PictureID":"2046917","CompanyTypeID":"5","Tag":"","LinkMan":"郭女士","TelPhone":"86-555-3886800","ClassName":"其它","ComProduct":"CNC數(shù)控車床","BrandNameCH":"","IsShow":"1","MarketPrice2":"0","RetailPrice":"0","ComHitnumber":"14091","MarketUpdateTime":"","CreateTime":"2025/3/10 15:52:58","Flag":"1","PackageName":"營銷寶會員","ClientSort":"0","CsName":"","Reprint":"2","FeedBackMsg":"","EnUrl":"","MobilePhone":"13965391459"},{"ID":"3029520","Picture":"15503715273aa74d2396b931e999e69a9bca03a3a080202ed03ca2251d0c1555323a601c54915233.jpg","PictureDomain":"img77","Name":"工廠可燃?xì)怏w報(bào)警設(shè)備價(jià)格","Type":"RBK-6000-ZL9","Descrip":"可燃?xì)怏w報(bào)警器設(shè)置要求規(guī)定：1、當(dāng)氣體探測器與控制系統(tǒng)配套使用時(shí)，可按下探測器的測試按鈕讓探測器報(bào)警與控制系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行對碼。2、探測器電壓是24V供電，由氣體報(bào)警控制主機(jī)為其供電，主機(jī)為220V電源供電。","CompanyName":"濟(jì)南申安電子科技有限公司","CompanyID":"128861","MarketPrice":"0","PsOrder":"0","PgID":"110","MaxOrder":"0","CityID":"147","City":"濟(jì)南市","Address":"濟(jì)南市","PropertysValue":"","HitNumber":"81","FrontShow":"0","IsCharges":"1","Year":"1","StarNum":"1","UpdateAndClientSort":"51670712","StandUrl":"/st128861","UpdateTime":"2025/3/10 15:52:37","TodayIsUpdate":"1","AttType":"0","AttState":"3","AttAddType":"0","IsSeoCreate":"0","IsOnlinePay":"0","MinPrice":"0.00","MaxPrice":"0.00","ClassID":"21002","productonlinetime":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","OnLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","DownLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","BrandPicDomin":"","BrandPicName":"","BrandProperty":"","PBrandID":"0","IsHadVideo":"0","VideoTime":"0","ShowPrice":"0.00","IndustrySort":"1020000","HasPicSort":"103029520","UserID":"141850","PriceType":"0","PictureID":"1685239","CompanyTypeID":"5","Tag":"","LinkMan":"田雨","TelPhone":"86-0531-62325085","ClassName":"其它","ComProduct":"可燃?xì)怏w檢測儀、可燃?xì)怏w報(bào)警器、天然氣檢測儀、天然氣報(bào)警器、便攜式氣體檢測儀","BrandNameCH":"","IsShow":"1","MarketPrice2":"0","RetailPrice":"0","ComHitnumber":"37016","MarketUpdateTime":"","CreateTime":"2024/5/17 12:42:15","Flag":"1","PackageName":"營銷寶會員","ClientSort":"0","CsName":"","Reprint":"2","FeedBackMsg":"","EnUrl":"","MobilePhone":"13082753136"},{"ID":"2944249","Picture":"5eceadd4559dcfd255c7a6faa205338001ef659cea8843f9f64bb4295efea53dff5e98739dc28f7d.png","PictureDomain":"img70","Name":"檢驗(yàn)水泥桿撓度儀報(bào)價(jià)","Type":"LH-4","Descrip":"檢驗(yàn)水泥桿撓度儀適用于電力、非電力、通訊以及接觸網(wǎng)架線路的照明支柱和信號機(jī)柱，在我們實(shí)際電桿檢驗(yàn)、檢測過程中, 針對生產(chǎn)廠家的實(shí)際情況, 在檢測電桿力學(xué)性能時(shí), 應(yīng)盡量減少差錯, 滿足檢驗(yàn)的條件, 避免產(chǎn)生的彎距、撓度值的誤差。從而影響我們對承載力檢驗(yàn)彎矩、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)彎距、承載力的允許撓度值的判定。","CompanyName":"北京綠野創(chuàng)能機(jī)電設(shè)備有限公司","CompanyID":"128766","MarketPrice":"0","PsOrder":"0","PgID":"110","MaxOrder":"0","CityID":"1","City":"北京市","Address":"北京市","PropertysValue":"","HitNumber":"84","FrontShow":"0","IsCharges":"1","Year":"1","StarNum":"1","UpdateAndClientSort":"51670710","StandUrl":"/st128766","UpdateTime":"2025/3/10 15:50:29","TodayIsUpdate":"1","AttType":"0","AttState":"0","AttAddType":"0","IsSeoCreate":"0","IsOnlinePay":"0","MinPrice":"0.00","MaxPrice":"0.00","ClassID":"21002","productonlinetime":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","OnLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","DownLineDate":"1900/1/1 0:00:00","BrandPicDomin":"","BrandPicName":"","BrandProperty":"","PBrandID":"0","IsHadVideo":"0","VideoTime":"0","ShowPrice":"0.00","IndustrySort":"1020000","HasPicSort":"102944249","UserID":"141755","PriceType":"0","PictureID":"1670266","CompanyTypeID":"5","Tag":"","LinkMan":"李經(jīng)理","TelPhone":"15801328661","ClassName":"其它","ComProduct":"主營產(chǎn)品：電桿荷載撓度測試儀，烏氏粘度計(jì)恒溫水浴槽，薄膜過濾器，可控硅控制器，可控硅觸發(fā)板，石油含水電脫分析儀，活性炭強(qiáng)度測定儀，控溫消煮爐，兆歐表，指針搖表","BrandNameCH":"","IsShow":"1","MarketPrice2":"0","RetailPrice":"0","ComHitnumber":"38696","MarketUpdateTime":"","CreateTime":"2024/3/23 13:01:17","Flag":"1","PackageName":"營銷寶會員","ClientSort":"0","CsName":"","Reprint":"2","FeedBackMsg":"","EnUrl":"","MobilePhone":"15311260326 13661171160"}]