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玉米市場持續(xù)“陣痛” 玉米收獲機會“受傷”嗎?

2017-01-13 13:46:54 來源:中國農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 閱讀量:22242 評論

導(dǎo)讀:眼看還不到一個月就要過年了,這本應(yīng)是件令全國人民都高興的事兒,可此時的糧農(nóng)卻“望糧興嘆”,苦悶不已。因受2016年玉米臨儲制度改革的影響,原有糧食市場的平衡被打破,部分農(nóng)戶的玉米賣不出去,從而導(dǎo)致庫存加大,價格下跌。

  【中國農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】眼看還不到一個月就要過年了,這本應(yīng)是件令全國人民都高興的事兒,可此時的糧農(nóng)卻“望糧興嘆”,苦悶不已。因受2016年玉米臨儲制度改革的影響,原有糧食市場的平衡被打破,部分農(nóng)戶的玉米賣不出去,從而導(dǎo)致庫存加大,價格下跌。
 
  臨近年關(guān),經(jīng)過前段時間集中大幅降價,東北產(chǎn)區(qū)近日降價腳步放緩,市場價格穩(wěn)中偏弱運行。農(nóng)戶在變現(xiàn)需求與低價難售中等待市場回暖,但短期看,價格下行,壓力仍是主導(dǎo);   華北產(chǎn)區(qū)糧價跌幅明顯小于東北,但用糧企業(yè)年前備貨需求清淡,預(yù)計后期在東北糧價反彈行情出現(xiàn)前,將是華北糧價向東北下跌靠攏過程;南方銷區(qū),飼料企業(yè)備貨持續(xù),但持續(xù)的降價及供應(yīng)充足使企業(yè)備貨規(guī)??s窄,加之年底集中出欄,能量原料需求下降,節(jié)前飼企備貨難以提振銷區(qū)市場。
 
  可見,年底玉米市場仍在持續(xù)“陣痛”中,農(nóng)民陷入“手有余糧而力不足”的困境,這種情況若不加以改善,必將對2017年的玉米種植、銷售及玉米機械市場產(chǎn)生影響。
 
  玉米價格下降加快種植結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變
 
  “米改豆”、“糧改飼”是我國種植業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的目標。2016年中國玉米產(chǎn)量為21955.4萬噸,同比2015年總產(chǎn)量下降2.3%,糧食總產(chǎn)量“十二年連增”就此止步。除其他自然條件因素的影響之外,種植結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變無疑是影響糧食產(chǎn)量的重大原因之一。
 
  據(jù)資料顯示,2016年1月1日國內(nèi)玉米市場均價為1958.00元/噸,預(yù)計2016年12月31日國內(nèi)玉米均價為1580元/噸,2016年全年玉米價格下跌378元/噸,降幅將接近20%。這翻降價無疑打擊了玉米種植者的信心,對種植玉米呈現(xiàn)出觀望或退縮的態(tài)度,因此,玉米種植面積減少或成未來自然趨勢之一。
 
  那么,隨著玉米種植面積的減少,農(nóng)機界較關(guān)注的玉米收獲機的需求量是否也會隨之減少呢?
 
  2016年玉米收獲機市場遇冷
 
  2016年受市場玉米購銷價格大跌,國內(nèi)玉米價格下降,國家對玉米種植結(jié)構(gòu)進行調(diào)整和補貼資金嚴重短缺等因素影響,我國玉米收獲機市場出現(xiàn)大幅下跌局面,雖然在第三季度的銷售旺季中,部分玉米收獲機企業(yè)搶抓機遇,開展多種形式演示活動,提升用戶體驗,使玉米收獲機產(chǎn)銷大幅下滑的局面略有好轉(zhuǎn),但2016年玉米收獲機市場疲軟下滑的態(tài)勢已是必然。
 
  勇猛機械股份有限公司總經(jīng)理表示,今年玉米機市場的表現(xiàn)出乎大多數(shù)業(yè)內(nèi)人士的預(yù)料,糧食價格的不穩(wěn)定,讓包地的農(nóng)民不敢包、不敢種,購機的農(nóng)民也不敢輕易買了。此外,國家削減鐮刀灣地區(qū)玉米種植面積、國2升國3、南方的水災(zāi)、北方的旱災(zāi)等因素疊加也對玉米機市場產(chǎn)生影響。
 
  盡管2016年玉米臨儲改革剛剛實施,但其對玉米機械的影響已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生效果了,經(jīng)過年底玉米價格帶來的沖擊,2017年,玉米收獲機該如何前行?
 
  需求還在 未來籽粒機收是方向
 
  業(yè)界認為,玉米價格的下跌,種植面積的減少,對于玉米收獲機的需求卻并不會減弱,只是要求更高了。隨著農(nóng)業(yè)機械化的不斷成熟,對農(nóng)機的要求也在逐漸提高,自動化、化的農(nóng)機一直都是市場稀缺。另外從玉米收獲機行業(yè)細分來看,供求總量失衡的格局之下仍難以掩蓋供求結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾,隨著玉米作物生產(chǎn)全程機械化進程的不斷加深,玉米籽粒收獲機械或?qū)⒃谖磥碛衩资斋@機械行業(yè)乃至整個農(nóng)業(yè)裝備行業(yè)中脫穎而出。
 
  與此同時,由于我國玉米機收總體水平還比較低,市場需求依然存在,特別是針對山區(qū)丘陵地帶質(zhì)量可靠的玉米收獲機產(chǎn)品依然不多,市場前景仍值得期待。
 
  眼下,玉米市場的“戰(zhàn)斗”仍在繼續(xù),無論年底糧食好不好賣,對于玉米收獲機企業(yè)來說,只要堅持進行產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)品制造、銷售領(lǐng)域及流通領(lǐng)域的調(diào)整,充分適應(yīng)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和用戶對農(nóng)機需求的變化,那么即使遇到“陣痛期”,也會屹立不倒,繼續(xù)前行。
 

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