2025年1月份AMI指數(shù)為41.5%，開年市場環(huán)境并沒有大的改善

2025-02-17 14:31:11 來源：中國農(nóng)機流通協(xié)會 閱讀量：9254 評論

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】 中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2025年1月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為41.5%，環(huán)比提升2.1個百分點，同比下降0.8個百分點。從環(huán)比看，庫存指數(shù)、人氣信心指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)有所上漲，其它則全部下降。其中，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)漲幅最大，環(huán)比提升22.7個百分點；從同比看，6個一級指數(shù)除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全線下行，其中效益指數(shù)降幅最大，為6.6個百分點。6個一級指數(shù)中除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)挺進景氣區(qū)間外，其余均位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　中國農(nóng)機流通協(xié)會信息咨詢部主任張文博認為：作為2025年開年的1月，AMI出現(xiàn)環(huán)比提升、同比下滑的趨勢，1月份正值農(nóng)閑時期，市場正值淡季，生產(chǎn)企業(yè)與經(jīng)銷商的年底促銷政策也已基本結(jié)束，AMI走勢波瀾不驚。從數(shù)據(jù)層面看，環(huán)比提升2.1個百分點，同比下降0.8個百分點，基本上波動不大，41.5的景氣度亦位于近三年同期歷史低點，開年的1月份，AMI表現(xiàn)并不如意，說明今年的市場環(huán)境并沒有大的改善。
 
　　1月份，AMI的表現(xiàn)出收益下滑，銷售能力下降，人氣上漲，信心提升以及多數(shù)細分領(lǐng)域下滑等方面的特征。10個三級指數(shù)中，大型拖拉機指數(shù)一枝獨秀，1月份，三級指數(shù)中大型拖拉機指數(shù)是唯一一支環(huán)比、同比均上漲的指數(shù)，環(huán)比提升5.3個百分點，同比提升1.8個百分點。在這樣的市場環(huán)境下，大拖市場依然能保持增長，說明市場需求逐步在向大型高端智能化方向發(fā)力。其余市場除免耕播種機市場環(huán)比略有上漲外，全部環(huán)比、同比雙雙下跌，其中深松機指數(shù)、插秧機指數(shù)、遙控飛行噴霧機指數(shù)、玉米收獲機指數(shù)下滑幅度超過兩位數(shù)。
 
　　2月份，季節(jié)因素依然是主導(dǎo)AMI的關(guān)鍵因素。2月份雖然仍然是淡季，但也是本年度旺季淡季的分水嶺，春耕、春播將自南方至北方順次展開，農(nóng)機交易復(fù)蘇，且趨于活躍，為市場上行提供必要的支撐。市場信心增強。作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)，本月表現(xiàn)出強烈信號，以60.5的景氣度沖進景氣區(qū)間，是本月唯一進入景氣區(qū)間的一級指數(shù)，環(huán)比、同比大幅提升，說明多數(shù)經(jīng)理人看好2月份的市場。且1月份41.5的AMI景氣度位于近三年同期歷史低點，為下月市場環(huán)比增長預(yù)設(shè)了較低門檻。
 
　　雖然2月市場面臨諸多利好因素，但利空因素表現(xiàn)的也較為強烈。一是去年年底，許多企業(yè)促銷，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)銷商庫存高企，對2月份乃至上半年市場銷售將產(chǎn)生重大影響；二是去年糧價低迷，農(nóng)機投資者收益下降，對購買力和潛在投資者均產(chǎn)生較大的負面效應(yīng)，上行壓力增大；三是農(nóng)機補貼的影響，如插秧機等一些產(chǎn)品的農(nóng)機補貼單臺補貼額度下調(diào)已成定局，去年一些用戶提前購買，掏空了今年的市場。
 
　　從2014年至2025年11年間AMI的表現(xiàn)看，2月份景氣度均高于1月，且進入景氣區(qū)間的概率較大?；诖?，預(yù)計2月份AMI環(huán)比、同比有望實現(xiàn)雙增，但能否進入景氣區(qū)間仍存在較大的不確定性，一、二、三級指數(shù)冷熱不均的特點將表現(xiàn)得較為突出。

上一篇： 2月份AMI指數(shù)為59.1%，市場正走在復(fù)蘇的路上

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