2024年12月份AMI指數(shù)為39.4%，景氣度創(chuàng)全年新低

2025-01-06 11:23:11 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：13059 評(píng)論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年12月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為39.4%，環(huán)比下降0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降3.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全部深陷不景氣區(qū)間。從環(huán)比看，除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)小幅增長(zhǎng)外，其它全部下降。其中，效益、人氣指數(shù)降幅較大；從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全線下行，其中效益指數(shù)、人氣指數(shù)降幅較大，分別下降10.6%和8%，其它指數(shù)小幅下降。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為：12月份作為全年收官月份，AMI繼續(xù)保持收縮區(qū)間。整體市場(chǎng)波瀾不驚，深陷不景氣泥潭，月度走勢(shì)小幅波動(dòng)。環(huán)比每況愈下，震蕩下行，創(chuàng)下9月份以來(lái)的“四連跌”，走完了慘淡的2024年。同比降幅較大，詮釋了過(guò)去一年的慘淡場(chǎng)景。
 
　　AMI下半年持續(xù)低迷是多重利空因素疊加形成的，特別是效益指數(shù)跌跌不休，人氣指數(shù)跌入冰點(diǎn)。如果說(shuō)12月也有好消息，那就是田間管理機(jī)械帶給我們的些許安慰。在所監(jiān)測(cè)的5個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)中，環(huán)比“2上3下”，田間管理機(jī)械、收獲機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長(zhǎng)，尤其是田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)，環(huán)比大幅度提升13.9%，同比提升14.2%，并一舉挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間，成為12月份二級(jí)指數(shù)中最靚麗的一道風(fēng)景線。田間管理指數(shù)景氣度的上佳表現(xiàn)主要得益于遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)指數(shù)的飆升，12月份，遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比飆升30.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比大幅度提升32.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，以71.1%的景氣度創(chuàng)下全年最高值，成為拉動(dòng)田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)的主要力量。
 
　　12月份，所監(jiān)測(cè)的10個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比呈“6上4下”的特點(diǎn)。包括中型拖拉機(jī)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)、自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)、自走履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)、自走式玉米收割機(jī)、深松機(jī)在內(nèi)的六個(gè)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長(zhǎng)，其余均出現(xiàn)下降。同比“4升6降”。其中，自走式玉米收獲機(jī)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)、插秧機(jī)、深松機(jī)4個(gè)指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，其它指數(shù)均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降。
 
　　預(yù)計(jì)2025年1月份，市場(chǎng)不會(huì)帶來(lái)什么驚喜， AMI將繼續(xù)徘徊于不景氣區(qū)間。環(huán)比、同比或雙雙下滑，一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)的景氣度表現(xiàn)或冰火同爐。不過(guò)市場(chǎng)雖正值淡季，但依然有一些利好因素存在并對(duì)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生一定的支撐作用。如商務(wù)部近日發(fā)布對(duì)進(jìn)口牛肉進(jìn)行保障措施立案調(diào)查的公告，對(duì)明年我國(guó)畜牧業(yè)以及相關(guān)的飼料收獲機(jī)、玉米收獲機(jī)均有強(qiáng)烈的利好；從市場(chǎng)價(jià)值鏈分析，制造端與銷售端對(duì)市場(chǎng)的拉動(dòng)力也不容小覷。
 
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